Cubs, Brewers to begin key NL Central series
Baseball Betting Lines
07/02/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the Chicago Cubs are going to win a third straight National League Central title, they are going to have to pick it up offensively. This weekend would be a good time to get it going, as they return home for the start of a four-game set against the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers that begins tonight.
The Cubs, who last year led the NL with 855 runs scored, have struggled at the plate all season long and especially recently. They were blanked four times in the month of June and managed just one run on three other occasions.
All and all, though, the Cubs are just 3 1/2 games back of the Brewers in the Central race and enter this series on the heels of taking two of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Chicago pulled out a series win on Wednesday, as Derrek Lee belted a two-run home run and Randy Wells tossed seven innings of one-run ball to lead the Cubs to a 4-1 win in the rubber match of a three-game series at PNC Park.
Wells (3-3) gave up six hits and fanned four batters to collect his third straight victory. Kevin Gregg retired the side in the ninth to pick up his 14th save of the year.
Kosuke Fukudome hit a solo homer and doubled, while Geovany Soto went 2-for-4 with a triple and an RBI single for the Cubs, who won for just the third time in their last 10 games.
"I have been trying to go out and throw strikes to keep the flow of the game going. The last three games I have been able to do that," Wells said.
Hoping to keep Chicago in the win column tonight will be Ryan Dempster, who is 4-5 with a 4.09 ERA. Dempster, a 17-game winner a season ago, has just one win in his last eight starts and is winless in his previous five outings.
On Saturday against the White Sox, Dempster did not factor in the decision but was far from effective, as he allowed five runs and eight hits in five innings of the Cubs' 8-7 loss.
Dempster lost to the Brewers the last time he faced them, but is 9-3 lifetime against them with a 2.79 ERA in 37 games (15 starts).
Milwaukee, meanwhile, was denied a sweep in its three-game series with the New York Mets on Wednesday, despite a sensational effort from Yovani Gallardo in the 1-0 loss.
Gallardo (8-5) absorbed the loss despite giving up only one run on five hits in seven innings. He also struck out a career-high 12 and walked two.
"He mixes all his pitches well for strikes," New York's Ryan Church said of Gallardo. "He keeps you off-balance. He keeps you guessing. He really has good control of his curveball and changeup. A lot of people were swinging at the curveball down in the dirt."
Ryan Braun went 2-for-4 for the Brewers, who lost for only the second time in their last six games.
Getting the call for the Brewers tonight will be right-hander Seth McClung, who is 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA this season. After 28 relief appearances, McClung made his first start of the season on Saturday against San Francisco and did not get a decision, as he allowed three runs and six hits in four innings.
This will be McClung's first-ever start versus the Cubs, but he is 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA in 10 trips out of the bullpen against them.
Milwaukee has split its six meetings with the Cubs this season, but won in five of its nine visits to Wrigley a year ago.
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Today's contest was original
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves are gradually working their way up the NL East standings and will try to extend their winning streak to a season-high four straight games tonight in the finale of a three-game series versus the Philadelphia
Yankees hope A-Rod stays hot in finale vs. Seattle >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez is starting to heat up. Not coincidentally,
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The Bronx Bombers will be shooting for an eighth consecutive victory and a
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Reds, D-Backs close series in Cincy >>
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Cueto tossed six shutout inning
Cardinals try to even up Giants in series finale >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barry Zito tries to slow down Albert Pujols this evening
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White Sox take win streak to Kansas City >>
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Chicago comes
Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.